Meta Stock Fell 13% in 90 Days. The Cash Flow Data Says the Panic Is Overdone.

Meta has dropped 13% over the last 90 days to US$667 a share, and the reason is easy to find. The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between $125 billion and $145 billion - nearly double last year's $72 billion - and investors are worried the money is vanishing into AI infrastructure with nothing to show for it yet.

The problem with this argument is that it mistakes a temporary cash flow compression for a permanent structural decline. I look at cash flow first in every business - energy or otherwise - because that is what actually survives when headlines go quiet. By that standard, Meta is not in trouble. The story is more nuanced, and the valuation discount created by this panic is worth paying attention to.